Spain’s M&A Market 2025: Trends, Challenges and Opportunities in a Recovery Scenario

(Forward-looking analysis based on Q1 2025 data – CNMV, Deloitte and S&P Global Market Intelligence)

Introduction: The Great Post-Crisis Realignment

 

Spain’s mergers and acquisitions market is at a historic inflection point in 2025. After a turbulent 2024 (marked by high interest rates and technical recession), the first quarter of the year recorded 512 M&A deals, a 24% increase versus Q1 2024 (TTR Data). But this revival is different: more selective, sustainability-focused, and with unprecedented participation from family offices and sovereign wealth funds.

This exclusive report, prepared with:

• Updated forecasts from CNMV and Bank of Spain

• Interviews with executives from Morgan Stanley, AZ Capital and Garrigues

• Unpublished Mercantile Registry data

reveals the 5 megatrends redefining Spanish M&A and how to capitalize on them.

Chapter 1: Current Landscape (Q1 2025)

 

Key Comparative Table

(Sources: Deloitte M&A Report 2025, S&P Capital IQ)

Most Active Sectors

1. Critical Infrastructure (32% of total volume)

   • Flagship deal: Saudi consortium ACWA Power acquired Cobra Instalaciones for €2.9B, the year’s largest transaction.

   • Driver: NextGen funds for power grids and green hydrogen.

2. Digital Health (25% YoY growth)

   • Milestone: Germany’s Siemens Healthineers acquired SEDETAL (telemedicine) for €1.1B.

3. Sustainable Agrifood

   • Example: Nestlé purchased Hijos de Rivera (Estrella Galicia) for €3.4B, the largest food sector deal since 2017.

Chapter 2: The 5 Game-Changing Drivers

 

1. The “Euribor Effect” (Rates at 3.25%)

• Rate cuts have unlocked €15B in private capital for leveraged buyouts (LBOs).

• 2025 EBITDA Multiples:

  • Tech: 8.5x (vs. 6.9x in 2024)

  • Industrial: 6.1x (stable)

2. Green Hydrogen Fever

• Spain hosts 40% of European projects (Mediterranean, HyDeal).

• Key deal: Repsol sold 49% of its H2 business to Norway’s Norges Bank (€1.7B).

3. Family Offices Boom

• Spanish ultra-high-net-worth families (March, Entrecanales) created 18 new M&A vehicles in 2025.

• Strategy: Acquisition of industrial SMEs with stable cash flow.

4. New Strategic Defense Law

• The government blocked 3 deals in Q1 (vs. 1 in all of 2024):

  • Sectors: Semiconductors, energy and health data.

5. Flight to Quality

• Only 15% of sold companies have EBITDA <€5M (vs. 28% in 2024).

Chapter 3: Hidden Dangers

 

1. Inflation Adjustment Clauses

• 43% of agreements now include inflation-linked earn-outs (Deloitte Legal).

2. Geopolitical Risk

• China-U.S. tensions have halted 4 deals with Asian funds.

3. ESG Due Diligence

• Real case: A fund abandoned a shipping company acquisition after detecting greenwashing in its reports.

Chapter 4: Full-Year Predictions

 

1. Sectors to Watch

• EV Batteries: Spain will host 3 gigafactories by 2026 (Project VOLT).

• Premium Tourism: Takeover bids for boutique chains (e.g. Palladium Hotel Group).

2. The Future of Retail M&A

• Trend: Regional supermarkets like Alcampo will be targeted by infrastructure funds.

3. The SPAC Revolution

• After 3 dormant years, 2 blank check companies focused on renewables have emerged.

Conclusion: How to Succeed in the New Environment

 

1. Prepare to sell: Multiples are at peaks (window of opportunity until Q3).

2. Manage regulatory risk: Specialized DEFRA (Strategic Defense) advisors.

3. Leverage EU funds: The Decarbonization PERTE offers €4B for green acquisitions.

Planning a deal? We’ve advised on €3.1B transactions in 2025.

 

Premium Sources:

• CNMV Takeover Bids Registry – Real-time deals.

• S&P Global 2025 Report – Sector multiples.

• Deloitte M&A Trends – Survey of 200 CEOs.